Group stage update: 2/3 games played + America's outlook

This World Cup has been pretty wild so far, with lots of goals, overachieving underdogs, and underachieving heavyweights.  With only one game left in each group, what could happen?

Group A:

Brazil & Mexico 4, Croatia 3, Cameroon 0.  Brazil will advance if they beat or tie Cameroon, which shouldn't be difficult for them.  Mexico advances with a win or tie, and Croatia has to win.  There are a bunch of contingencies because of tiebreakers, including a scenario in which Brazil doesn't make it (heavy Brazil loss plus Mexico/Croatia tie), but all of them are unlikely.  I say Brazil #1, Mexico #2

Group B:

Netherlands & Chile 6, Spain & Australia 0.  Netherlands and Chile are through.  Netherlands will be #1 if they beat or tie Chile, and Chile is #1 if they can pull off a win.  This should be a GREAT game, but I think they'll draw: Netherlands #1, Chile #2

Group C:

Columbia 6, Ivory Coast 3, Japan & Greece 1.  Columbia is through, almost definitely as the #1 even if they lose (+4 goal difference).  Ivory Coast will be through if they beat or tie Greece, Greece takes #2 if they beat Ivory Coast and Japan loses, and Japan is through if they win by more than 2 goals while Ivory Coast draws or loses.  Columbia #1, Ivory Coast #2.

Group D:

COSTA RICA 6, Italy & Uruguay 3, England 0.  Costa Rica advances!!!!  It's really nice to see a heavy underdog not just succeed, but kick ass in a group where most expected them to have 0 points and -8 goal difference.  Italy has Uruguay on goal difference, so Italy is through if they beat or tie Uruguay, whereas Uruguay has to win; with Suarez back I think Uruguay takes it.  Costa Rica #1, Uruguay #2

Group E:

France 6, Ecuador & Switzerland 3, Honduras 0.  France is through, but the two tied teams aren't playing each other so this gets interesting.  Ecuador has 2 more than Switzerland on goal difference, so Switzerland needs to beat Honduras by several goals (or hope France beats/draws Ecuador.  France #1, Switzerland #2.

Group F:

Argentina 6, Nigeria 4, Iran 1, Bosnia 0.  Such a boring group, but Argentina's 6 is pretty soft given how crappy they've looked.  Iran can get through if they beat Bosnia by quite a few and Argentina beat Nigeria.  There is also an interesting scenario that would involve a coin flip, if Argentia wins 1-0 and Iran wins 1-0, but see below for more on tiebreakers.  Argentina #1, Nigeria #2

Group G:

Germany & USA 4, Portugal and Ghana 1.  Easily the most interesting group, because all 4 teams can still qualify as either #1 or #2.  Portugal has the most work to do, with a -4 goal difference, and Ghana needs to win and get help from the USA-Germany game.  Germany #1, USA #2.

Group H:

Belgium 6, Algeria 3, Russia and South Korea 1.  Belgium is through, Algeria is through with a win or probably through on goal difference in a tie.  Russia needs to beat Algeria and hope South Korea loses to Belgium, while South Korea needs to win big and hope Russia beats Algeria by only 1.  Belgium #1, Russia #2

America's chances:

    Despite the regret at not locking up advancement by only tying Portugal, USA is still in good position to get through.  A win or tie with Germany, while hopeful, isn't terribly far-fetched.  Germany is in the same position, except they get the #1 seed if they tie.  Given that both teams need to just not lose, look for conservative tactics from both.  That said, winning is in the German's DNA so they won't go easy on America either, but it's still sort of okay to lose.  For America to give up the #2 seed, one of Ghana or Portugal will have to win (a draw means America is through no matter what).  Portugal has to make up a -5 goal difference (remember that if America loses by 3, Portugal only needs 3), and Ghana only has to make up a -2 goal difference.  If America loses by 1, and Ghana wins by 2, Ghana advances.  This gets really sticky if Ghana wins by 1 and America loses by 1.  That leaves USA and Ghana tied on points and goal difference.

    I didn't actually know what happens in this case, and it seems to be pretty uncommon, so I looked it up and found this helpful explanation.  The next tiebreaker is total goals scored; USA has a 1-goal lead on Ghana.  America just needs to score as many goals as Ghana does while losing (weird, I know).  If Ghana scores one more goal than America does (and they still both only win/lose by 1), we go to the next tiebreaker.  In head-to-head play, USA beat Ghana, so America would go through!
   Like in Group F, there is also a chance that this group would be decided by a coin toss.  If America loses 3-2 and Portugal wins 4-0, all the tiebreakers fall through.  This is ridiculously unlikely, but still an interesting footnote.

That said, it would be nice if USA kept it simple and just beat Germany.