How can America survive the group stage?

As I wipe a tear from my eye, I must admit that it looks pretty dire for team USA.  It's a fact that Germany and Portugal have more talented individual players, and Ghana is comparable (if not better) on paper.  USA couldn't have gotten a worse draw.  In all likelihood, they'll beat Ghana, lose to Portugal and Germany, and spend the rest of the world cup admiring Brazil's natural wonders

HOWEVER, they benefit from both the order of the games and the venues in which they're played, so don't put your Uncle Sam suit away yet!

Round 1

Germany - Portugal @ Salvador

USA - Ghana @ Natal

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After the first round, one or both of Germany or Portugal will be at a disadvantage.  If the USA is to qualify, they absolutely have to beat Ghana; if they lose or tie they'll have to beat one or both of Germany and Portugal.  Natal is hot, and probably plays into Ghana's hands more than America's, but any issues with fitness or endurance will be exposed before the end of this game.  Fortunately, this will be USA's easiest game, so this round is pretty simple; USA needs to be tied for first or have the outright lead after collecting all 3 points from Ghana.

Realistically optimistic standings:

USA 3

Germany 3

Portugal 0

Ghana 0

Round 2

Germany - Ghana @ Fortaleza

USA - Portugal @ Manaus
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Germany needs to beat Ghana, so that they go into their final game playing only for seed and not progression.  It's USA needs to tie or beat Portugal; a win is unlikely, given that if they try to attack they will lose.  But playing in Manaus is going to be absolutely miserable (high of 90, humidity around 80%), and the weather should reduce Portugal's technical and counter-attacking advantage.  If USA plays smart, they can drag out a draw.

Realistically optimistic standings:

Germany 6

USA 4

Portugal 1

Ghana 0

Round 3

Germany - USA @ Recife

Portugal - Ghana @ Brasilia
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If the USA isn't already poised to advance when they play Germany, they are totally screwed.  In an ideal world, Germany will be coming off a tough game in the jungle and won't have a ton to play for, having already locked up advancement to the knockout round.  Recife won't be as miserable as Manaus, but it'll be close, so the imbalance in quality will be dulled a bit.  Like against Portugal, if USA is well-organized they might be able to hold out for a draw.  However, they can still lose this game and progress, they just can't let this game impact their goal difference too much.  If Ghana, playing for pride at this point, manages to tie or beat Portugal, USA will be through!
Realistically optimistic standings:
Germany 9
USA 4
Portugal 4/3
Ghana 0/1

If everything goes the right way, USA won't need to beat Germany and Portugal to progress, but they will have to pull off a major upset or they'll end up qualifying by goal difference.  They'll also need to be careful using up their allotted miracles in the group stage; they'll need a few left over to get past Belgium, Argentina, Spain, and Brazil...

Predictions for groups G & H

Group G: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, USA
    Another group of death. There may not be 3 elite teams like in Group D, but USA and Ghana are both very good for 2nd tier teams. One of Portugal or Germany's road to progression will not be smooth because they play each other first, and mean that both of their games against Ghana and USA will be must-wins. Portugal will struggle to deal with Ghana's physicality and speed through the midfield, but Portugal's offense will prove to be the toughest test of America's defense; look for Cristiano Ronaldo to rip USA apart if he's fit. For Ghana or America to have a chance at getting through, they need to win their first game against each other; a tie will put Portugal in the driver's seat regardless of how they fare against Germany.
    The order of the games makes this the most interesting group in the tournament. One or both of Germany and Portugal will probably have to come from behind on points totals to qualify because they play each other first. If Ghana or America win, they only have to tie the loser of Germany-Portugal to have a great chance of progressing to the knockout rounds. As a result, BOTH of the first games are equally important so I'll deviate from my normal format and pick two important games

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Winners: Germany, Portugal
Best game: Germany v Portugal (12pm EST Monday, June 16)
Most important game: Germany v Portugal (12pm EST Monday, June 16)
Similarly important game: USA v Ghana (6pm EST Monday, June 16)


Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea
    The softest group in the tournament. Algeria is one of the 3 worst teams to make it to Brazil, South Korea is in the bottom 10, and Russia has a tendency to underperform. This is the best possible scenario for Belgium, as their young team will gain some big-game experience in what are effectively practice matches before they start to take on someone their own size. Belgium is a lock to make it through, and the 2nd qualifier here will be whoever wins the Russia v South Korea game. 100% of Russia's squad play domestically, mostly the same 3 or 4 teams, which will make it easy for coach Fabio Capello to get them firing on all cylinders. By contrast, there are only 2 outfield players from South Korea that play on the same team at the club level, and the rest of the team is spread across 7 different leagues world-wide. As a result, I'm picking Russia to have the honor of getting crushed by Germany in the first knockout round.

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Winners: Belgium, Russia
Best game: There really isn't one, but Belgium v Russia could be interesting (12pm EST, Sunday, June 22)
Most important game: Russia v South Korea (6pm EST Tuesday, June 17)