Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Predictions for groups G & H

Group G: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, USA
    Another group of death. There may not be 3 elite teams like in Group D, but USA and Ghana are both very good for 2nd tier teams. One of Portugal or Germany's road to progression will not be smooth because they play each other first, and mean that both of their games against Ghana and USA will be must-wins. Portugal will struggle to deal with Ghana's physicality and speed through the midfield, but Portugal's offense will prove to be the toughest test of America's defense; look for Cristiano Ronaldo to rip USA apart if he's fit. For Ghana or America to have a chance at getting through, they need to win their first game against each other; a tie will put Portugal in the driver's seat regardless of how they fare against Germany.
    The order of the games makes this the most interesting group in the tournament. One or both of Germany and Portugal will probably have to come from behind on points totals to qualify because they play each other first. If Ghana or America win, they only have to tie the loser of Germany-Portugal to have a great chance of progressing to the knockout rounds. As a result, BOTH of the first games are equally important so I'll deviate from my normal format and pick two important games
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Winners: Germany, Portugal
Best game: Germany v Portugal (12pm EST Monday, June 16)
Most important game: Germany v Portugal (12pm EST Monday, June 16)
Similarly important game: USA v Ghana (6pm EST Monday, June 16)


Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea
    The softest group in the tournament. Algeria is one of the 3 worst teams to make it to Brazil, South Korea is in the bottom 10, and Russia has a tendency to underperform. This is the best possible scenario for Belgium, as their young team will gain some big-game experience in what are effectively practice matches before they start to take on someone their own size. Belgium is a lock to make it through, and the 2nd qualifier here will be whoever wins the Russia v South Korea game. 100% of Russia's squad play domestically, mostly the same 3 or 4 teams, which will make it easy for coach Fabio Capello to get them firing on all cylinders. By contrast, there are only 2 outfield players from South Korea that play on the same team at the club level, and the rest of the team is spread across 7 different leagues world-wide. As a result, I'm picking Russia to have the honor of getting crushed by Germany in the first knockout round.
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Winners: Belgium, Russia
Best game: There really isn't one, but Belgium v Russia could be interesting (12pm EST, Sunday, June 22)
Most important game: Russia v South Korea (6pm EST Tuesday, June 17)

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