Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Predictions for groups D, E, F

Group D: Uruguay, Costa Rica, Italy, England

Costa Rica is pretty screwed, and will probably lose all 3 games, so it's really down to the other three. This is the hardest group in the tournament, so I really can't make predictions with any sort of conviction, but here goes anyway:
Suarez's late surgery likely means that he won't be at 100% until later in the tournament, but he can still function as a creator if he's not razor sharp. Any team will miss Suarez, but Forlan is a pretty good backup and will fill in ably. Either way, offense will not be Uruguay's problem. Italy is amongst the mosts well-rounded team in the tournament, so I find it difficult to discount them. Both Italy and England will struggle to press the ball in Manaus, so I expect to see Pirlo badly expose England's defense. As well as Gerrard has functioned as a deep-lying pivot for Liverpool, he has his work cut out for him against Italy; playing with Henderson or Wilshere in a holding role will help some. However, if England plays smart they can counter effectively with the speed of Sturridge and Sterling. England seems to have gotten rid of a little of the weight of expectation that has plagued them in recent years, and I expect them to reap the benefits of coupling extremely talented youngsters with veteran leadership; let's just hope Roy Hodgson has the stones to play Sterling. All told, I expect Uruguay's defense to be their downfall, and England to scrape by.
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Winners: Italy, England
Best game: Italy v England (6pm EST, Saturday, June 14)
Game to watch: Uruguay v England (3pm EST, Thursday, June 19)

Group E: Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras

2nd softest group in the WC. Don't let France fool you, they're not as good as a team as their talent suggests, but I think they'll qualify here along with a reliable Swiss team.  A solid group stage will give both group winners the shot of confidence they'll need for the knockout rounds, but neither will want to come in second and have to face Argentina's terrifying attack.  As a result, I expect their most important game in the group will be against each other.  Neither Ecuador nor Honduras are particularly noteworthy, but either could get through if they beat the other, tie Switzerland, and lose to France by as few goals as possible. Not likely, but worth mentioning.
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Winners: Switzerland, France
Best game: Switzerland v France (3pm EST, Friday, June 20)
Game to watch: Switzerland v France (3pm EST, Friday, June 20)


Group F: Argentina, Bosnia, Iran, Nigeria

Another interesting group between 3 teams, but not a group of death because neither Bosnia nor Nigeria are teams that one would expect to be in the knockout rounds. Argentina is too good to lose to either Bosnia or Nigeria; even if they give up 3 goals they'll still score more than the other team, and look for them to hang 10 on Iran. So it's really down to the Bosnian newcomers and Nigeria, a team I would normally say are stronger than people think, except for their absolutely pathetic display against USA in their final warm up friendly. They simply didn't have the fitness to play a full 90 minutes in Florida's heat, and that just won't cut it in Brazil. I am excited to see what Bosnia is made of, and they could make it to the final 8; they would likely play France before running into Germany.
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Winners: Argentina, Bosnia
Best game: Argentina v Bosnia (6pm EST, Sunday, June 15)
Game to watch: Bosnia v Nigeria (6pm EST, Saturday, June 21)

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