Wednesday, June 11, 2014

How can America survive the group stage?

As I wipe a tear from my eye, I must admit that it looks pretty dire for team USA.  It's a fact that Germany and Portugal have more talented individual players, and Ghana is comparable (if not better) on paper.  USA couldn't have gotten a worse draw.  In all likelihood, they'll beat Ghana, lose to Portugal and Germany, and spend the rest of the world cup admiring Brazil's natural wonders

HOWEVER, they benefit from both the order of the games and the venues in which they're played, so don't put your Uncle Sam suit away yet!

Round 1
Germany - Portugal @ Salvador
USA - Ghana @ Natal
----------
After the first round, one or both of Germany or Portugal will be at a disadvantage.  If the USA is to qualify, they absolutely have to beat Ghana; if they lose or tie they'll have to beat one or both of Germany and Portugal.  Natal is hot, and probably plays into Ghana's hands more than America's, but any issues with fitness or endurance will be exposed before the end of this game.  Fortunately, this will be USA's easiest game, so this round is pretty simple; USA needs to be tied for first or have the outright lead after collecting all 3 points from Ghana.
Realistically optimistic standings:
USA 3
Germany 3
Portugal 0
Ghana 0

Round 2
Germany - Ghana @ Fortaleza
USA - Portugal @ Manaus
----------
Germany needs to beat Ghana, so that they go into their final game playing only for seed and not progression.  It's USA needs to tie or beat Portugal; a win is unlikely, given that if they try to attack they will lose.  But playing in Manaus is going to be absolutely miserable (high of 90, humidity around 80%), and the weather should reduce Portugal's technical and counter-attacking advantage.  If USA plays smart, they can drag out a draw.
Realistically optimistic standings:
Germany 6
USA 4
Portugal 1
Ghana 0

Round 3
Germany - USA @ Recife
Portugal - Ghana @ Brasilia
----------
If the USA isn't already poised to advance when they play Germany, they are totally screwed.  In an ideal world, Germany will be coming off a tough game in the jungle and won't have a ton to play for, having already locked up advancement to the knockout round.  Recife won't be as miserable as Manaus, but it'll be close, so the imbalance in quality will be dulled a bit.  Like against Portugal, if USA is well-organized they might be able to hold out for a draw.  However, they can still lose this game and progress, they just can't let this game impact their goal difference too much.  If Ghana, playing for pride at this point, manages to tie or beat Portugal, USA will be through!
Realistically optimistic standings:
Germany 9
USA 4
Portugal 4/3
Ghana 0/1

If everything goes the right way, USA won't need to beat Germany and Portugal to progress, but they will have to pull off a major upset or they'll end up qualifying by goal difference.  They'll also need to be careful using up their allotted miracles in the group stage; they'll need a few left over to get past Belgium, Argentina, Spain, and Brazil...


No comments:

Post a Comment